Brief summaries of xG model values for 2019-2020. For a full explanation of how to
interpret these terms, see the full model explanation.
First, the geometric terms, converted to probabilities for display. Each hex is shown
with the constant term for that shot type added in already, so that the fabrics can be
compared to one another.
The base probabilities for:
shots from below the goal line: 6.69%;
shots from the neutral zone: 0.39%;
Strength, Score, Rush, and Rebound Terms
Since precisely one of the geometric terms above applies to every shot, we can consider
them as providing starting odds for us. Then, we can interpret the other covariates in
terms of how they modify those odds, so we quote the remaining terms as odds ratios.
Impact on Goal Odds
Goaltender results are below. Similarly for
which I've put on separate pages for performance