Brief summaries of xG model values for 2019-2020. For a full explanation of how to
interpret these terms, see the full model explanation.

Geometry Results

First, the geometric terms, converted to probabilities for display. Each hex is shown
with the constant term for that shot type added in already, so that the fabrics can be
compared to one another.

The base probabilities for:

shots from below the goal line: 6.69%;

shots from the neutral zone: 0.39%;

wraparounds: 5.06%

perimeter: 1.35%

Strength, Score, Rush, and Rebound Terms

Since precisely one of the geometric terms above applies to every shot, we can consider
them as providing starting odds for us. Then, we can interpret the other covariates in
terms of how they modify those odds, so we quote the remaining terms as odds ratios.

Covariate

Impact on Goal Odds

SH

20%

3v3

49%

PP

45%

PPv3

87%

PP-Slapshot

8%

Rush

93%

Rebound

86%

Leading

-0%

Trailing

-8%

Player Results

Goaltender results are below. Similarly for
forward and
defender results,
which I've put on separate pages for performance
reasons.