Magnus 3: xG, Shooting, and Goalie-ing

March 26, 2020, Micah Blake McCurdy, @IneffectiveMath

Brief summaries of xG model values for 2017-2018. For a full explanation of how to interpret these terms, see the full model explanation.

Geometry Results

First, the geometric terms, converted to probabilities for display. Each hex is shown with the constant term for that shot type added in already, so that the fabrics can be compared to one another.

The base probabilities for:

Strength, Score, Rush, and Rebound Terms

Since precisely one of the geometric terms above applies to every shot, we can consider them as providing starting odds for us. Then, we can interpret the other covariates in terms of how they modify those odds, so we quote the remaining terms as odds ratios.
CovariateImpact on Goal Odds
SH 33%
3v3 81%
PP 52%
PPv3 118%
Rush 112%
Rebound 181%
Leading 12%
Trailing 1%

Player Results

Goaltender results are below. Similarly for forward and defender results, which I've put on separate pages for performance reasons.

Minimum Shots Faced: